Soil erosion remains a constraining factor for natural-resource dependent livelihoods and associated land use in hilly and mountainous areas of Vietnam. Projections of climate in Vietnam from UN agencies based on results from numerous climate models indicate that mean annual rainfall and the total proportion of rainfall that falls in heavy rainfall events will increase in Vietnam in the future while increasing temperatures are already observable and are expected to continue. Changes in both temperature and precipitation are highly seasonal while the increase - especially in rainfall - can exacerbate existing levels of soil erosion in mountainous areas of Vietnam. This paper presents the results of a GIS-based calculation of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using quantitative data (a soil texture map, a land cover map, rainfall data from several weather stations and a digital elevation model) and qualitative data (in-situ data on farming systems and cropping calendars) from Quang Nam province in mid-central Vietnam. The current soil erosion risk has been calculated and mapped while in-situ validation of results has been carried out in the field with different groups of natural resource dependent groups as well as local government staff involved in natural resource management and programme implementation. Future scenarios have been mapped illustrating the soil erosion risk under different rainfall and land use regimes. Results indicate significant differences between forestry-based and paddy-rice based land use systems.